*UPDATED 4/24*
With the 2013 NFL Draft only 3 days away, Ive decided to take a shot at being a draft guru. Actually, I stole all of Mel Kipers picks and passed them off as my own. In all seriousness, these things are impossible to predict. One trade or pick can completely derail the rest of the first round and send your whole mock draft into a tail spin. I am not an expert on college football or the NFL. Some of the prospects I have seen play on Saturdays, but most of them I havent. I rely on information that I hear from people who study this stuff such as former General Managers and scouts that are now in the media and I formulate a guess based on what I think a teams needs are and what past draft trends may lead to a certain pick. It is interesting to compare my guesses to people who are on TV and radio who call themselves "experts" just to see how I stack up with my limited information. I hope to post the results compared to others after the draft. Here goes nothing.
1) Kansas City Chiefs- Luke Joekel OT Texas A&M- With Brandon Albert on his way out, Joekel will anchor the left side of the offensive line for the next 10 years.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars- Dion Jordan DE Oregon- Has the biggest upside of any pass rusher in the draft. A little undersized for a 4-3 defensive end, but if he bulks up and hones his technique he can be in the mold of a Demarcus Ware or Jason Pierre-Paul.
3) Oakland Raiders- Sharrif Floyd- DT Florida- Some say he is the best interior defensive lineman in the draft, Im not sure of that but nonetheless a great career at Florida. A very safe top ten pick.
4) Philadelphia Eagles- Eric Fisher- OT Central Michigan- All of the same skill sets as Luke Joekel but didnt play against the same competition in college. Wouldnt be surprised to see Fisher be the better player or even the first overall pick but the difference in competition gives the edge to Joekel. With Jason Peters having a bunch of injuries and getting a little long in the tooth, Fisher starts day one on the line and you wont hear his name for the rest of his career. (thats a good thing)
5) Detroit Lions- Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU- Jim Schwartz loves freaky athletic defensive linemen and Ansah fits that mold. With the departure of Kyle Vandenbosch and Cliff Avril this selection fills a big need.
6) Cleveland Browns- Dee Milliner CB Alabama- Widely regarded as the best corner in the draft, he teams up with Joe Haden to become one of the leagues premier cornerback duo's.
7) Arizona Cardinals- Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma- The last of the three franchise left tackles with a first round grade, the Cardinals fill their largest need. Line was atrocious last year and it doesnt help having a very immobile quarterback like Carson Palmer looking for time to throw.
8) Buffalo Bills- Chance Warmack G Alabama- History tells us that offensive guards very rarely go this early in the first round. Warmack is the best to come out in a long time at his position. I previously had Geno Smith here, but all of the buzz is that the Bills like Ryan Nassib. Its far too early for Nassib here so they go with the safe pick and hope he slides to the second round.
9) New York Jets- Barkevious Mingo DE LSU- Another long, freaky athletic pass rusher that the Jets have sorely needed for a long time. They whiffed on Vernon Gholston a few years ago and they cross their fingers that the undersized Mingo doesnt do the same.
10) Tennessee Titans- Star Lotulelei DT Utah- Heart issues seem to not be as big of a concern as previously thought. He was an absolutely dominant player in college and I wouldnt be surprised if he went higher than this.
11) San Diego Chargers- Jarvis Jones LB Georgia- Great production in college and with the loss of Shaun Phillips the chargers need another pass rusher. Concerns about a spinal stinosis condition may cause him to slide a ways down but the upside out weighs the risk.
12) Miami Dolphins- Xavier Rhodes CB Florida St.- Next in line at the corner position, the Dolphins fill the vacancy left after the trade of Vontae Davis.
13) New York Jets- Jonathan Cooper G North Carolina- Cornerback seems logical here, but I think they feel comfortable with Antonio Cromartie and former first round pick Kyle Wilson for now. I'm buying into the buzz of Guards going earlier than usual.
14) Carolina Panthers- Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina- Perfect fit for the panthers 4 man front as a impact interior lineman that will generate pressure from inside where division rival Quarterbacks Drew Brees and Matt Ryan thrive from.
15) New Orleans Saints- Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M- The opposite of Sheldon Richardson. Tests very poorly but has done nothing but get after the quarterback in college. The saints are switching to a 3-4 defense this year and absolutely need a pass rusher to build around.
16) St. Louis Rams- Kenny Vaccaro S Texas- Able to cover a lot of ground and a more than willing tackler. A perfect Jeff Fisher kind of guy.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers- Tavon Austin WR West Virginia- A very quick and shifty playmaker in the open field. Very small frame that will probably prevent him from being a number 1 WR but the steelers would love to fill the void left by the loss of Mike Wallace to free agency.
18) Dallas Cowboys- D.J. Fluker OT Alabama- Massive individual that Dallas would likely start at Guard for a year until it becomes more financially feasable to cut the struggling and overpaid Doug Free. Jerry Jones isnt smart enough to make this pick but he almost has no choice now but to protect his over paid quarterback.
19) New York Giants- Menelik Watson OT Florida St.- Wont be a dominant player in the NFL but will be a solid for years to come. Not the ideal tackle for the Giants, but he is the best available for a such a huge need and depth at this position is fading quickly.
20) Chicago Bears- Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee- Cutler loves Brandon Marshall, but he isnt getting any younger and Patterson has a similar skill set. He likely will need a couple of years to polish his game and Chicago is proactive with this pick.
21) Cincinnati Bengals- Matt Elam S Florida - They missed on D.J. Fluker to replace Andre Smith and without another tackle with a first round grade on the board, safety is their next need. I like Eric Reid better, but Elam isnt far off.
22) St. Louis Rams- Eddie Lacy RB Alabama- Probably the only runningback with a first round grade, the rams need a replacement for Steven Jackson. Wide Reciever is a huge need here, but Lacy is a better prospect than the remaining recievers in the first round.
23) Minnesota Vikings- Justin Hunter WR Tennessee- Even with the addition of Greg Jennings, Hunter brings a potent combo to the perimeter for a quarterback who struggles completing the forward pass over 5 yards.
24) Indianapolis Colts- Keenan Allen WR California- Its time to add some weapons along the perimeter for Andrew Luck. Allen is very athletic and has a whole bunch of production in college. Colts find successor to Reggie Wayne.
25) Minnesota Vikings- Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri- Interior defensive line is getting old and its time to replenish talent for what used to be the best run defense in the league. Richardson has huge upside as a 3 technique in this 4 man front.
26) Green Bay Packers- Tyler Eifert- My brother is convinced this is the pick, thats good enough for me. The packers in recent years have had some luck in very good players falling to them late in the first round and this time will be no different.
27) Houston Texans- Eric Reid- The best safety in this draft. Do you need another reason?
28) Denver Broncos- Bjoern Werner DE Florida St.- The embarrassing loss of Elvis Dumerville leaves a big hole opposite Von Miller. Great value here.
29) New England Patriots- Desmond Trufant CB Washington- Patriots always looking for good secondary players. Trufant is a steal this late in the first round.
30) Atlanta Falcons- Alec Ogletree LB Georgia- If not for some off the field issues Ogletree could easily be a top 15 pick. The reward far outweighs the risk this late in the first round.
31) San Fransisco 49ers- Jonathan Cyprien S Florida International- Loss of Dashaun Goldson makes this physical thumper a perfect fit for the 9ers defense.
32) Baltimore Ravens- Arthur Brown LB Kansas St.- The loss of Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerby leave a gaping hole in the middle of the Super Bowl champion defense. Brown is the best option available at the final pick of the first round.
Trades I could see happening:
I could see a team in the middle of the round like the Chargers with a huge need at tackle moving up and taking one of the top 3 tackles in the top 5.
I fully expect a team to trade back up into the first round to take Geno Smith but I just couldnt find a spot for him with having to pick a player for each team. Probably somewhere in the early 20's
I could see a couple of teams with 2 first round picks like the Jets or Vikings moving up to take an impact player. Geno Smith a fit for the Jets?????? Tavon Austin to the Vikings???????
As I stated in the comments section, the 49ers have 13 draft picks and not nearly enough room for that many rookies on the roster. Look for a BIG move up to get an impact defensive player. Kenny Vaccaro? Matt Elam? Maybe a stud defensive lineman like Star Lotulelei?
In all honesty, I hate mock drafts for that very reason. It's a lot like predicting the weather; if it's more than 48 hours out, you're just guessing, and a lot of times you're not sure what happened til it's over...
ReplyDeleteI find more intrigue on trying to predict trades. For instance, there are a lot of teams talking about trading out of the top. With that in mind, perhaps it will be cheaper to buy into it? And it makes me wonder if TT will find a valuable way to trade up. Or will he sit tight.
Yeah its almost as silly as predicting your teams record when the schedule comes out before you even know who is going to be on your team or what injuries will occur in training camp. Its a fun exercise that no one really takes too seriously. With months to go until training camp its an excuse to talk football during the dead time of the year. I could see San Fran making a big move as many people are saying. They were the only team in the league last year to not have at least 1 rookie start a game and they have 13 draft picks. There is not nearly enough room on the roster for 13 rookies and its unlikely they will trade down to aquire more picks. They are a championship caliber team that needs one or two more impact players to get over the hump. Look for them to possibly make a move far up in the first round.
ReplyDeleteEither way, does this make us all "experts???"
ReplyDeleteI disagree saul. One wrong pick in a mock draft, and yes, literally every pick thereafter could be wrong. But unless the plane blows up on the way to Cali, Dave and or I are right on half those picks. The difference is that picking the draft is trying to pick outcome from an exponentially large pool of possibilities whereas it's 50/50 down the line on the schedule. I'm not criticizing you for posting one (whether it was yours or not) I'm just saying I find it an exercise in futility. And I'm never right about trades either, just find it more interesting.
ReplyDeleteSo if Aaron Rodgers goes down in training camp, would you still predict the record for the packers to be the same or even close? I dont mind guessing records, its a fun exercise but its equally as unpredictable as the draft. Just look at how many new teams make the playoffs every year and there is always a few surprises. Did anyone look at their schedule last year before the draft and think that Seattle was going to be a tough team to beat?
ReplyDeleteIt worked out all right for the patriots the year Brady went down. Rodgers is a huge part of this team, no doubt, and irreplaceable but this team has shown it can win without him so, yes. A couple of my picks would be huge reaches without Rodgers but the Lions in GB or the Louis on Thanksgiving? When is the last time we lost one of those?
ReplyDeleteAnd don't forget parity. Some teams face larger attrition issues than others but everyone does to some degree. And for every Rodgers going down, so is a Revis or Ray Lewis...
right thats why its so hard to predict. What looks like a tough game late in the season can turn out to be a gimme if the other team has a key player get hurt. What looks like a gimme can be a playoff buster if a team like the Colts who were 2-14 the prior year turn out to be an 11 win playoff team the next. It happens every year. Its not my intention to try and brag after I get 2 or 3 picks right in the entire first round and try to act like im this big guru on the draft. For me a mock draft is more about discussing which players could be a good fit on a certain team and what direction a team might be looking for based on needs or prior draft tendencies. Ive changed my mind on a couple of picks so I'm going to edit and update my mock for the final time and at the end I'll try and list a few possible trade scenarios. Hopefully that can generate a better conversation.
ReplyDeleteI'll give you credit, you got the #5 to the Lions right, Ziggy Ansah. Then technically, you got the #30 pick right, Alec Ogletree, but it was to the Falcons, not the Rams. And you did put 26 out of 32 possible selections in the first round correctly (if not in the right place). Also, 4 of your top 5 were in the top 5 and 7 of your top 10 likewise.
ReplyDelete